A wave of new transport aircraft orders across Europe and the Middle East is quietly reshaping the used military aircraft market, and defence watchers say Pakistan could be among the eventual beneficiaries. As countries replace their ageing Lockheed C-130H Hercules fleets with the newer Brazilian-built Embraer C-390 Millennium, a growing number of retired Hercules airframes are expected to become available for resale, and history suggests at least some of them may end up wearing Pakistan Air Force (PAF) markings.

Greece Becomes the Latest C-390 Customer

The trigger for this renewed interest is Greece’s decision to join the C-390 programme. On 23 July 2026, Greece’s Government Council for Foreign Affairs and Defence approved the acquisition of three Embraer C-390 Millennium transport aircraft, with an option to add three more later. The deal, arranged on an intergovernmental basis with Portugal, is valued at approximately 685 million US dollars, with deliveries expected to be spread out between 2027 and 2030.

With this decision, Greece became the thirteenth country to either order or formally select the C-390 for its air force, a milestone that underscores just how far Embraer has pushed the aircraft into markets once dominated almost exclusively by Lockheed Martin’s C-130J Super Hercules. The C-390 has now secured a foothold not only across NATO member states but also in several important markets outside the alliance, positioning it as a serious long-term rival to the C-130J in the medium tactical transport category.

Why the C-390 Orderbook Matters Beyond New Aircraft Sales

While each C-390 order is significant on its own as a modernisation milestone for the purchasing country, defence analysts point out that these deals carry a secondary consequence that is arguably just as important: they trigger the retirement and eventual disposal of older transport aircraft, most commonly the C-130H Hercules, that the C-390 is designed to replace.

Of the thirteen countries that have now ordered or formally selected the C-390, six currently operate the standard, short-body C-130H or its tanker variant, the KC-130H. This is a specific and important distinction. The short-body C-130H is different from the stretched C-130H-30 variant, the newer and more advanced C-130J used by countries like the United States and several NATO allies, and the older C-130K variant that was originally built for the British Royal Air Force and is now operated by Austria. Only the six operators of the standard C-130H and KC-130H variant are directly relevant to this disposal trend, since it is their older airframes that are most likely to be phased out as the C-390 enters service.

Together, these six air forces hold roughly 36 C-130H and KC-130H airframes between them. As deliveries of new C-390 aircraft begin arriving through the late 2020s and into the early 2030s, these older Hercules aircraft will progressively be withdrawn from active service, creating a pool of used, but often still airworthy, tactical transport aircraft available for sale or transfer to other operators.

The Belgian Precedent: A Roadmap for How These Aircraft Move

This is not a purely theoretical scenario. Belgium has already gone through this exact process, and its experience offers a useful roadmap for how these retiring C-130H fleets are likely to be disposed of, and who may end up acquiring them.

As Belgium transitioned its own airlift fleet toward newer aircraft, it eventually sold off its legacy C-130H fleet. That sale ultimately connected with the Pakistan Air Force, which acquired part of the retired Belgian fleet. This transaction is significant because it demonstrates that Pakistan has both the appetite and an established precedent for acquiring second-hand C-130H airframes from European air forces looking to modernise their transport fleets. For a country like Pakistan, which has operated variants of the C-130 Hercules for decades as part of its airlift and special mission aircraft inventory, absorbing additional low-cost, combat-proven airframes from a friendly nation’s surplus fleet represents a logistically straightforward way to expand capability without the far higher costs associated with buying new-build aircraft.

Which Air Forces Are in Play

Among the six C-390 customers still flying the C-130H or KC-130H, three specific fleets stand out in terms of scale and relevance to this unfolding disposal trend.

Sweden currently operates a relatively small fleet, consisting of five C-130H aircraft and a single KC-130H tanker variant. While modest in size compared to some other operators, Sweden’s fleet still represents a meaningful contribution to the overall pool of aircraft likely to become available as Stockholm transitions toward newer platforms.

Greece, now a confirmed C-390 customer following its late July order, holds a considerably larger fleet of approximately ten C-130H aircraft. Notably, some of these aircraft have reportedly spent extended periods either in storage or undergoing repair work, which raises questions about how many of Greece’s ten airframes are genuinely in flyable, exportable condition versus how many may require significant refurbishment before they could be transferred to another operator, or may simply be retired outright rather than sold.

The United Arab Emirates rounds out the group with the largest single fleet among the six, operating roughly eight C-130H aircraft alongside a number of civilian-derived L-100-30 transport aircraft, which share the same basic airframe design but are configured for non-military use. The UAE’s position as a Gulf state with close defence and economic ties to Pakistan makes its eventual C-130H disposal particularly relevant to observers tracking potential future PAF acquisitions, given the two countries’ history of defence cooperation and equipment transfers.

What This Could Mean for the Pakistan Air Force

For the Pakistan Air Force, the prospect of additional C-130H airframes becoming available over the coming years fits into a broader pattern of how the service has historically expanded and sustained its tactical airlift capability. Rather than relying solely on new aircraft purchases, which are often constrained by budget pressures and lengthy procurement timelines, the PAF has periodically supplemented its fleet through the acquisition of retired airframes from allied or friendly air forces, refurbishing and integrating them into existing squadrons.

The Hercules family in particular has proven well suited to this kind of secondary market activity. It is a mature, widely produced airframe with a global support ecosystem, extensive spare parts availability, and decades of operational history across dozens of air forces. For an operator like Pakistan that already maintains C-130 variants in its inventory, absorbing additional airframes of the same basic type, even older short-body C-130H models, offers meaningful advantages in terms of shared maintenance infrastructure, pilot training pipelines and logistics support, compared to introducing an entirely new aircraft type.

Should Belgium’s disposal route repeat itself with Sweden, Greece or the UAE, whether through direct government-to-government sales, defence surplus programmes or brokered transfers, it would represent a continuation of a pattern that has already proven workable for both the selling nations and Pakistan.

Caveats and Open Questions

It is worth noting that not every retiring C-130H airframe automatically becomes available for international resale. Some aircraft may be retained for spare parts to support the remainder of a country’s existing fleet before full transition to the C-390. Others, particularly those already in poor condition, such as some of the Greek airframes reportedly sitting in storage or requiring repair, may simply be scrapped rather than refurbished for sale. National governments also retain full discretion over whether and to whom they choose to sell surplus military hardware, meaning political, diplomatic and strategic considerations will ultimately shape which countries, if any, receive offers on these aircraft.

Even so, with six C-390 customers holding a combined 36 C-130H and KC-130H airframes set to be phased out over the next several years, and with Pakistan’s own track record of successfully acquiring similar surplus aircraft from Belgium, defence analysts see a plausible pathway for additional Hercules airframes to eventually join the Pakistan Air Force’s transport fleet. Whether that materialises will depend heavily on how Sweden, Greece, the UAE and the other three C-130H operating C-390 customers choose to handle their retiring fleets as new aircraft deliveries begin arriving toward the end of this decade.