Pakistan and Sri Lanka will meet in the final of the ODI tri-series at Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore on Saturday, October 31, after a week in which the hosts swung from one of their most dramatic wins in years to one of their most chastening defeats. How Shaheen Shah Afridi’s side responds to being bowled out for 110 will shape the outcome of a tournament that doubles as preparation for the 2027 World Cup.

Pakistan’s route to the final went through Sunday’s one-wicket victory over England, in which Shadab Khan made an unbeaten 113 from number eight and shared an unbroken 89-run last-wicket stand with Haris Rauf to chase 242 from 154 for 9. That result secured qualification. Two days later, against Sri Lanka in the same city, the side looked like a different team. Kusal Mendis won the toss and put Pakistan in, and left-arm seamer Dilshan Madushanka took a career-best 5 for 34 as the hosts were bowled out in 25.3 overs. Babar Azam top-scored with 29 off 33 balls, Hasan Nawaz made 17, and only a handful of batters reached double figures. Pakistan were 23 for 2 after 6.2 overs and 61 for 5 when Babar fell.

Sri Lanka needed 111 and got there in 18.1 overs, with 191 balls to spare, thanks to an unbeaten 62 off 60 balls from Kamindu Mendis. Cricinfo noted that the total was Pakistan’s second-lowest at home and their third-lowest against Sri Lanka, and that the win ended Sri Lanka’s five-match losing streak against Pakistan. Kamindu was also dropped behind the stumps early in his innings by Saad Baig, a reminder that the visitors were helped by some fortune. The result eliminated England without a win, making their final group match against Sri Lanka on Thursday a dead rubber.

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The contrast between the two matches raises the question of which version of Pakistan turns up on Saturday. The side that beat Sri Lanka by 37 runs in the opening match, thanks to Salman Ali Agha’s 107 and a disciplined pace attack, is capable of beating them again. But the top order has been a recurring concern across the tournament, and the middle order has been rescued by individual innings from Agha and Shadab rather than by a steady platform. Against a Sri Lanka side with a confident bowling group and a fresh sense of momentum, a collapse in the first 10 overs could prove decisive.

There is also a disciplinary matter to settle ahead of the final. On Wednesday, the ICC fined Haris Rauf 20% of his match fee and issued an official reprimand for a Level 1 breach of its Code of Conduct during the England match. According to Pakistan Today, the incident took place at the end of the 46th over, when Rauf, batting at the non-striker’s end, appealed for a wide and became involved in an argument with England all-rounder Will Jacks. He raised his bat during the exchange and continued to argue after being warned by the umpire. Dawn reported that it was his third offence in a 24-month period, taking his total of demerit points to five. Rauf accepted the sanction proposed by match referee Jeff Crowe, so no formal hearing was held, and nothing in the ICC statement suggests he will miss the final. England were separately fined 15% of their match fees for a slow over rate after being ruled three overs short.

The episode matters because of what it says about Rauf’s role. He has been one of Pakistan’s most effective white-ball bowlers and, as his stand with Shadab showed, a useful lower-order contributor, but his history of disciplinary issues, including sanctions during the Asia Cup last year, means that his conduct is watched closely. A repeat offence would carry heavier consequences, which gives the team management a reason to keep his intensity in check without blunting it.

Also Read: Shadab Khan’s Maiden ODI Century Sends Pakistan Into Tri-Series Final After Stunning One-Wicket Win Over England

History adds another layer. According to ESPNcricinfo’s commentary last November, Pakistan had lost all three ODI tri-series finals they had previously played at home, along with an Asian Test Championship final, before winning last year’s T20I tri-series final against Sri Lanka in Rawalpindi. That earlier win broke a long run of final defeats in Pakistan, and it came against the same opponent they will face on Saturday. Whether it offers any psychological edge is hard to say, but it does suggest that Pakistan can win finals at home.

Sri Lanka will go in with the benefit of fresh confidence and a settled top order, and the visitors have shown they can bowl out Pakistan cheaply on a Gaddafi Stadium pitch that helps new-ball bowlers. Pakistan’s pace group of Shaheen, Naseem Shah and Rauf will need to take early wickets, as they did in the opening match, and the batting will need to avoid the kind of early losses that doomed Tuesday’s innings.

For Shaheen, the final is an opportunity to turn a strong first week as captain into a trophy. For Babar, whose 16,000-run milestone earlier in the tournament was followed by a low-scoring evening against Sri Lanka, it is a chance to anchor an innings in a high-pressure game. And for the selectors, the match offers a test of whether the side’s depth is real or whether it depends too heavily on individual rescues.

The ODI tri-series will end on Saturday night, and with the World Cup a year away, the result will be read as an early sign of how far this Pakistan team has come, and how far it still has to go.

Compiled by the Weekly PK Sports Desk.